# C.H. Robinson Buys RXO as Diesel Finally Eases - Freight Cycle Weekly - Week of October 6, 2026

> Freight Cycle Weekly for the week of October 6, 2026 (podcasts published September 29 to October 6). Podcast synthesis on C.H. Robinson's 5.8 billion dollar deal for RXO, diesel's first weekly decline in a month to 6.382 dollars a gallon, the G7 reserve release, softer truckload tenders with dry van rejections near 11 percent, rail intermodal strength, LTL, Class 8 orders and grain rail rates.

## Freight Cycle Weekly

### Week of October 6, 2026: C.H. Robinson Buys RXO as Diesel Finally Eases

---

For three straight weeks I opened this letter with a new diesel record. This week, for the first time since early September, I don't have one.

Diesel dropped. Not by much, and maybe not for long, but it dropped. Then on Monday morning the biggest freight broker in America said it would buy the number three player for $5.8 billion.

Those two stories are really one story. Trucking's recovery this year has come from trucks leaving the road, not from more freight showing up. Expensive fuel, tighter rules for drivers, and a Supreme Court ruling that made brokers liable for the carriers they hire have all pushed small operators out. When the little guys are squeezed that hard, the big guys buy each other. C.H. Robinson buying RXO is that squeeze turned into a deal.

Meanwhile, demand is doing what it usually does in October: it's easing off. So the question going into earnings season is whether supply stays tight enough to hold rates up while freight volumes soften. Here's what the podcasts said.

## TL;DR

* *C.H. Robinson (CHRW) is buying RXO for $5.8 billion in enterprise value* (the price of the shares plus the debt). Together they hold about *20% of the U.S. truck brokerage market*. The deal case rests on *$300 million in cost savings*, and Bloomberg Intelligence thinks that number "could be conservative."
* *Diesel broke its streak of records.* The government's weekly average fell *14.7 cents to $6.382* a gallon. AAA had it at *$6.32 by October 5*. The G7 agreed to release *100 million barrels* of crude and diesel from emergency reserves, and the threatened U.S. ban on diesel exports is off the table for now.
* *Don't relax yet on fuel.* Breakthrough's chief economist expects October diesel to average *higher* than September. Diesel still costs about *$110 a barrel more than crude*, against $30–40 at the start of the year.
* *Truckload demand eased, but capacity is still tight.* Tender volumes (how many loads shippers are offering to their contract carriers) fell sharply going into October. Even so, about *11% of dry van loads are still being turned down* by contract carriers, and spot rates are up *~42% from a year ago*.
* *Rail held up.* U.S. intermodal (truck trailers and containers carried on trains) rose *6.3%* in week 38. Domestic intermodal containers hit a *2026 high*. Truck-to-rail switching continues because the train is still *~31% cheaper*.
* *Class 8 truck orders showed up for the first time in months.* August orders were reportedly *below 10,000 units*, well short of what's needed just to replace aging trucks. That's good for rates and bad for the truck makers.
* *Grain rail rates are rising.* Union Pacific and BNSF raised new-crop corn rates by *$200–225 per car*, and rail fuel surcharges have nearly doubled from a year ago.

## What's New

### 1. The biggest broker deal in years: C.H. Robinson + RXO

C.H. Robinson announced Monday that it will acquire RXO. RXO was spun out of XPO in 2022 and later bought Coyote Logistics from UPS. On the [FreightWaves Today October 5 podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhVjpL22Rwk0KunAQOLapuhF9uomKQaIXCcpMaEj1iojfPt2zWUQnMgs2YYqeEOeTVqImDcXg5UQxC8BMmG43hVkojB0xf7ZuFL-2BgFNkR6QSg-3D-3DvLWI_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FteyxY9mCzgWHKRccISnn3-2Bh-2BnhMuuma-2B6KSZoJS5OwCCtD1me-2FKgnk2TCT6el2zvEmoeGWTEoQE6zwMk-2BzEolPUi4DBTS9d7egy2RXkGCKFBz8HcxHN3wdXESR2ATOpu8Q-3D-3D), FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller and John Kingston laid out the terms. RXO shareholders get about *$17.25 in cash plus C.H. Robinson stock per share*, or about *$30.25 in cash* if they choose all-cash. That works out to a *$5.8 billion enterprise value*, with *$300 million in net run-rate cost savings* expected within two years.

Lee Klaskow, Bloomberg Intelligence's senior transport analyst, explained the strategy on the [Bloomberg Intelligence podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiYl18vrfsXrVBuGNAJwnXeB4Wef4Zkw8FlMWL2qj3cZ-2BtpXV6JHskuCAJw5jdXMtkBXZLenSAGsJexKoM-2F27S6YWw3abUcF12pFETb7HbrpQ-3D-3DBT3__7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtfTr-2BTGWPz0kIQ0Lls-2Ff-2BAxEgqvrof2GdbaeDiEFTCaH1qvtSIDHoW7Lvi43iOr01sCdAZSlERA9pLukTgkiGSvc8SZ-2BHs0-2BTuZjEQ-2FCKOOOdMPY4poKeNuxFtatUND9hw-3D-3D):

"C.H. Robinson is buying the number three freight broker here in the United States, which is RxO. The combined two companies will have around 20% market share of the U.S. market."

*Why it matters:* Under CEO Dave Bozeman, C.H. Robinson has used AI tools and "lean" management (a discipline built around cutting wasted steps) to raise output per employee. Klaskow said its productivity "has increased around 60% over the last couple of years." The plan is to run RXO's freight on C.H. Robinson's systems and get the same lift. On the $300 million target, he said: "we think that 300 million probably could be conservative, assuming that management is able to execute. And there's not, you know, too much overlap with customers."

He also flagged the risk. When RXO bought Coyote, the two shared many of the same customers, and "the benefits weren't probably as great as they were expecting." Management says the overlap is small this time.

Kingston was blunter about why RXO agreed to sell: "RxO has had 10 consecutive quarters of a net loss," while C.H. Robinson "can bring the receipts." He noted that C.H. Robinson reports its headcount every quarter, so investors can check the productivity claims. RXO never gave that kind of detail.

Two more points that matter:

* *Insurance buying power.* The Supreme Court's *Montgomery* decision in May made brokers potentially liable for crashes involving carriers they hire. Klaskow said management "plan[s] on renegotiating with their insurance providers because of the size that they have now." When the main new cost in the industry is liability insurance, size is a real advantage.
* *Credit rating.* Per Kingston, C.H. Robinson consulted the rating agencies and expects the combined company to stay investment grade, even though RXO on its own is rated below that line.

On the [WHAT THE TRUCK?!? podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjy6yo44DomXBWTF-2FKa3179zYUui2mIXVz5K5VxcZYbLQHTixOOtEeqbj-2F2PADFOKnIVIEMGFdUp9IaYvU-2Fbb0D7kYlqaaZbXvqT-2FXdgPWIig-3D-3D9y7S_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtS1pjTRsg5UXeeHbMWP9grvGO8lsxG81PryOHw53szAl6-2FkvyCTW7v9sSQJCsX2hXcs6iKyU6YF17jb-2BRrkOgssWGBr8tDCt96ZtLW6xCyiUAvRK-2BCIqjH2OgSiBm3p9MQ-3D-3D), Michael "Dooner" Vincent took the carrier's point of view. He expects a regulatory review and a close around January, and he doesn't see a monopoly problem. His worry is control over who gets loads: "they have more power to control the narrative on what capacity is in the place." He added, "smaller brokers are already getting killed by insurance."

### 2. Consolidation is already underway, and new carriers aren't showing up

The deal fits a trend Aaron Graft, CEO of Triumph Financial (a bank and freight-payments company), described on [FreightWaves Today October 2](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgJbISkXR2XqWX2A7SEMvcnzUUIX48skqY4twu9QL2UUqYC8dV1waGKbB-2B4v-2B-2B9kUP1AQIhcdn9AuK4Yy-2FIy5myCyzR2DnvqaG0yyN7ovMc5A-3D-3DAes__7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtaGnofIePlm2G-2FqH5wj6zQydpK2ucBtsnlVIoiYh5l7F-2F-2FY7EXLzeiLSmqiunCl0uJHIE8gV3BZY0SfwdTTbZdGoLdcyqCpNCrfVLX1zl8JkvP0ZJALTUJHk2JkApXltTg-3D-3D):

"brokers over 100 million grew their volume 15% year over year. And we both know that the market didn't grow that much."

In other words, big brokers are taking share. Graft's more important point was about supply, though. In past cycles, rates this high would have brought a flood of new trucking companies. Not this time:

"Trucks haven't disappeared, but you can't use them the same as you did before... In a market like this, with rates like this, we would have seen new carrier formation go off the charts. I've seen it multiple times in my career. It is not happening now because you're not able to tender freight safely to those carriers."

That's the mechanism behind the whole cycle. Brokers used to handle a demand spike by calling on brand-new small carriers. After *Montgomery*, they won't risk the liability. Graft calls the result "defensible capacity": carriers you can actually use without legal risk. That pool is smaller than the number of trucks on the road suggests.

Graft didn't concede everything to the big players, though. He thinks smaller brokers serving small and mid-sized shippers can earn better margins than the giants: "volume is vanity. Profits are sanity."

### 3. Diesel's first decline in a month, and a G7 deal instead of an export ban

FTR's Avery Weiss on the [State of Freight podcast, episode 384](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjrVwke27qk9RttfPxtej3Fg6w25k3yiom8QTF9xVeymuLS-2BQXr0HW-2Bq7tzAeDXUW0uVza0ddj0PvYhfgPnIQDruz0xjLpucU0z-2FP2KYK6eCQ-3D-3DTG-g_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtWXTe18SwikpObytfPlT-2BpVrqVEpBuTYFBgXr-2Bu77jMl1vRhVlDC048dV5Fhqhz-2FMfu-2BXoCw4AGVElKSngTrvRtOLRi3Ajt3t4tiB3ij7MFyLUVqcii1fsbRyjYYxk2b9g-3D-3D): "The good news is that for the first time in four weeks, diesel prices did not set a record. The bad news is that even with a substantial decline, diesel prices are at their second highest weekly average ever."

The national average fell *14.7 cents to $6.382* for the week of September 28. Every region dropped except the Rocky Mountains, which set a new high. Weiss warned there's "no guarantee that it isn't just a pause," since the same thing has happened two or three times since March. Diesel stocks were "essentially flat" at a time of year when they normally build ahead of heating season and harvest.

Policy moved fast. On the BBC's [World Business Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh6Z3on6sAyEBSpTdh4KaHv5-2F0qdff68l0Hc1RbZkQwAwxZwZAu05NkxnE-2BEsPzJYx-2BsoXLQqHaX8qMbFIZ8nRJZzoqCVeVD6ByUm1TKm6Vvw-3D-3DQ9ky_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2Fta-2Fy8D6XbWVAeoamJZoRDv2pDZ-2B13LVUiP9dTu-2FCUjeFHU2VRQLHfk0Y7LFgP5jBvxwDXqQzScF3ijdelRg2zCer00G9acR2wDO4-2BzSNHSKAtpJHkXo9gYdkPxXuaMJIWA-3D-3D), the G7 agreed to release *100 million barrels* of crude and diesel from strategic stockpiles over four months, with "a substantial amount of diesel due to be released in the first 20 days." French President Emmanuel Macron said: "we have all committed to ensuring that there will be no export bans. President Trump, in particular, was very clear on this point." Europe's emergency reserves are mostly refined fuel. The U.S. reserve is crude. So Europe can put diesel straight into the market.

That trade-off matters more than it looks. Rory Johnston of Commodity Context explained on [The David Lin Report](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhWySGJxNDMDR6Ay-2Fp0Y3zJhMQ04dgpXnK62u2Iu6DuH-2BOUgC-2BZNHPeuBQSCocQyTcDBsX46FMF7CCJ1Wou2wypMDvAHp7J-2BNc5YsOQaK1AEg-3D-3DlfUZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2Fta-2BUNS85vXUfCqWjsYF-2F2sBnMgJdljrLYFelxAEYg6V0QBRjPEk3z-2BYr6zwjaaefXSn3AQykcu4t73BQQe4-2FiTThK2yLiEj0fWCSe4D9O3aR5pdN5jwhb-2Fo1IGERQmooww-3D-3D) that a U.S. export ban might have cut domestic prices by "a buck and a half a gallon by midterms" if it lasted about six weeks. The catch is that it "explodes global diesel prices," because the U.S. is close to the only country that has managed to raise diesel exports this year. Johnston estimates the world has lost "one and a half to two million barrels a day of diesel supply" because of strikes on Russian refineries and the Gulf disruption. U.S. exports rose 40–50% to roughly 1.5 million barrels a day to fill the gap.

Then on Monday, per Bloomberg's [Balance of Power](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiVXoDH8fdkVyuf5XnWP88Q2udc7nIJYV5RtLPAyENRknjIWShmtyPmq9I1CqCBiPKfo-2B9yyHhVhVguUDa4QE1PX8UQF3sNlrqHNeWLsRYQDQ-3D-3DBRHb_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtTsAcJXq6-2BUUFIAnhiVa-2FoxHuuKjAQJWo2ch-2B6x1zmeaoov71-2BjR0LXQBwRRyN04Ss08xsh7tCk5rF1U7ILt-2F8DSrImi2Vcv-2BGO-2BJk8rgcn4RpIs59Grls-2F8nXet2cCWOg-3D-3D), the White House was preparing to let on-road trucks use tax-exempt "red-dyed" diesel, which until now has been reserved for farm equipment. Oil analyst Tom Kloza's view: the change removes only the federal excise tax, about 24 cents, when prices are up by dollars.

### 4. ...but the people who forecast diesel aren't calling the top

Matt Munster, chief economist at Breakthrough (a fuel-management firm), was the most useful voice of the week on the [WHAT THE TRUCK?!? podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh-2FGdnEIZ4EaalFTFQHU4skYPVWvq9-2Bbj9F-2FeUrNn3J67sdjF72Mg2fsNNv8NyNOFyOFGOgDOkcfn3fj-2BaUxOjiAX1jF1fl2yWuNHkeXyCPrg-3D-3DYlIX_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtZ7VM-2BFMvXhJneXC8Av-2FVhAFemuSr183m4Tbku5FSC4SrylpeIBJGOkObMcTwJFuepcJVsRsv3QauOqNgBcjuMQjEPlWPQSuc7Tce4-2BXk-2BuB6HG6xrGMFLDvvzdcoIo2CA-3D-3D). He separates the price of diesel into two parts: the cost of the crude oil, and the extra margin refiners get for turning it into diesel. That margin is called the "crack spread."

* *Crude:* around $90 now, and he expects a 2027 average of *$70–75*.
* *The diesel premium:* "we're sitting $110 today. That's way off of where we were at the beginning of the year where we sat between $30 and $40 per barrel. This will take more time to work through."

His near-term forecast:

"Our forecast is higher prices in October than what we had in September. Expect them to be very volatile."

For budgeting next year, he expects 2027 diesel to run "10% to 20% lower than the 2026 average, but that's still keeping prices exceptionally high."

On [Facts vs Feelings](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgO0YbDes3BH7lO5gHQfqldHEqt7AqIebXnwAxqrUj-2FAS1lJ6KC9BCZKDdfl59pxwEDZ4525ci9larL1TD2irT54HAgrwkIMkETr0hwKZXiRA-3D-3DiqDi_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtY-2FuF1jVosSLNfEk4-2BJFQrLRGdKWWzmih-2FmlPVXD1STK-2BBapqZnKU2CnmPDotA3CtRB1hK-2Bls7K0TDoE0zOgsTuw5B2uOfugYceOlVOZlUUtG9pJACz-2F4A93wfWYl7Yr9A-3D-3D), Johnston put the crack spread at *$115 in mid-September and about $90 more recently*. That's some relief, but it's still several times the pre-2022 norm of about $20.

*Why it matters for carriers:* A fuel surcharge is the extra amount carriers bill shippers to cover fuel, and it's reset weekly off the government price, so it trails the pump by about a week. Venture 53's John Larkin, a longtime trucking analyst, put it simply on [Brake Check](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjWKaI63LytPv8nSD-2BIRvUj-2BTlYEN-2BUqXM6UQe-2Fojixc1260LmOZc6faySK6HoGVTWWhHfB-2F7emm5GIjtWP-2BpxubZylNJ15yf43Mx6YHsUF8A-3D-3Dv2nG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtaHzsRRATxDcC41bFV9AzsBC-2FO1mDIzK2CEOjhq4mnS36z5Q3zclkJ9L-2BdoN50hEw-2BaMLSjdcZ-2B-2BplUWDkZJdrn-2FTs-2FPARHDqNp3OqsBzL1Urkdp2x5D9BYi81fU0oOurw-3D-3D): "you may be paying $6.50 a gallon today, but you're getting back, you know, $6.25 a gallon equivalent." On the way up, that lag costs carriers. On the way down, it pays them back for a while. One falling week helps Q4 margins at the edges. A rebound in October, as Munster expects, would take that help away.

### 5. Truckload: demand gave back September's bump, but capacity is still tight

Zach Strickland of FreightWaves on [FreightWaves Today October 1](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi8sDWNMTFHEYNVQkzt0xMvxYusBMmhou1sZhisMw6HoOSCfXnrYcbws-2F4iEaNPAIGV0X8y-2Bf4mP2sHvV0DhfvMHSEWIvfYEZ3cPv6yww7nRg-3D-3DqaV-_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtSaWVveqt6qFToFjwcCMtNre0ISovWU-2BK26qv-2BpXPYrf3zd-2B2Rkyo3upMOaBaoMM-2FpU-2FohKxfJOskos3gNmkjvfdFst9N-2BT5r35gHeOvUYkj-2FnnFmDRC7k0dop1kz-2B38HA-3D-3D): tender volumes "collapsed really, uh, on day one" of October. Some drop is normal for the season, he said, "but this is a pretty sharp decline, and I know a lot of this freight is going intermodal at this point too."

The panel's read was that September had run hot compared with July and August, and volumes are now drifting back toward that summer level, which was below April. The supply side hasn't loosened, though. As the panel put it: "Dry van is continuously around 11% and has been very stubborn and stuck." The *tender rejection rate*, the share of contract loads carriers turn down because they can find better-paying freight elsewhere, is the best simple gauge of how tight the market is. Eleven percent means carriers still have options. A year ago the overall rate was about 5.5%; on [FreightWaves Today September 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgnBv5i-2BsW2t8sYgO3ePUefPkLQa6VrkhViZxbED2Gdnfdv-2BSDQRS8upbTIBRKXG-2BoJsEwMIX1b3lM-2FSni3fWY6A-3D-3DMbdA_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtZgmpj3aBopfmJB-2Bb56Oquu6TnAUsJNi0-2FPRmM6mp4frr-2B9ggGSvRkIeficss0lEiwUfSmMMAXm3sKCnL5BWeSC-2FqG59QbzR05mSAgVfjDg-2B90wRG-2BiqXzIE-2BmnVbsXBQA-3D-3D) it read *13.74%*.

The same panel's call on year-end contract bids: "expect to see continued repricing upwards." One panelist summed it up as "a very weird coiled up scenario." Low demand would normally mean plenty of trucks. "But because we're putting all these limits on capacity... all it takes is another hurricane."

FTR's numbers for week 38 (ended September 25):

| Spot rate | Week-over-week | vs. year ago |
|---|---|---|
| Total market | +1¢ | ~+42% |
| Total ex-fuel | n/a | +34% |
| Dry van | +4.5¢ | >+46% |
| Refrigerated | −7.3¢ | ~+47% |
| Flatbed | +<1¢ | ~+42% |
| Load volume | flat | ~+9% |

Weiss said the van increase "was unusual for a comparable week."

### 6. Three carrier-side views worth hearing in full

*David Parker, founder and CEO of Covenant Logistics (CVLG),* in front of his own sales team on [FreightWaves Today September 29](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOiT39uPyZy4OxAjke3pPnMgnBv5i-2BsW2t8sYgO3ePUefPkLQa6VrkhViZxbED2Gdnfdv-2BSDQRS8upbTIBRKXG-2BoJsEwMIX1b3lM-2FSni3fWY6A-3D-3D_6vT_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtYa7tH5aTr9LubXfFX40Jyst10Z6q8bh4Onu7f8voXHztiPkZOxsHovPJt3YMx9GNAPfoEWqJaRm5t2M29RJs-2Fj07S-2F5fQarhHSedXuQr386bN8R7d549Ew9YyPPpY9UuQ-3D-3D). He runs about 45 million gallons of fuel a year. "Fuel surcharge recovery runs us about 80%." The other 20% goes to idling, out-of-route miles and getting lost near the destination. "The narrative that you make money on fuel, which used to, at one point, was the case. That's no longer the case." Still, with mostly contract business, he called it "a Goldilocks environment," and said contract rates are now moving above spot "which is normal." The number to remember: "Since 2019, operating costs are up between 40 and 50%... Without fuel." Insurance, maintenance and driver pay all contribute, and he's "raising driver pay rapidly." His comfort level on tender rejections: "I like it when I see 13, 14%... If I start seeing 10, I might get a little scared."

*Dr. Jason Miller of Michigan State* on the same show, asked whether diesel or enforcement is doing more to hold back capacity now: "over the past couple weeks... I'd argue [diesel]'s probably been the bigger constraint." His point is about 2027. With diesel under $4, "you would start to see capacity being more willing to enter." Expensive fuel removes the usual way a tight market fixes itself. He also gave the reality check: volumes are "up about 1.5% or so from last year," and "we are currently in a tight market, but it's nowhere near as tight as the back half of 17... not near as tight as it was in the back half of 20 and all through 2021."

*John Larkin* on [Brake Check](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjWKaI63LytPv8nSD-2BIRvUj-2BTlYEN-2BUqXM6UQe-2Fojixc1260LmOZc6faySK6HoGVTWWhHfB-2F7emm5GIjtWP-2BpxubZylNJ15yf43Mx6YHsUF8A-3D-3DqVu2_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2Fta7IDwd938XgYcndKS7LJPndRMfIRT4ncO86pwBWOLIZQmUnTzxbwIWQRu1XhwD9yrUpsB9Wn3yfAT1wEVvNgtfSM7EWWmkOGLw2c2Q8zzyOTGXXJr6EdPWL1XmHYLid7Q-3D-3D) argued against buying trucks yet. He mentioned an owner hoping to grow 80% in 2027: "Even if everybody just grew 10%, you'd be in an oversupply situation." His bar for adding equipment: "if you're not running at a 92 operating ratio" (costs equal to 92% of revenue, an 8% operating margin) "you're probably not earning your cost of capital."

### 7. LTL: Estes posts a record week, and freight moves shorter distances

Less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers combine many smaller shipments in one trailer. Webb Estes of Estes Express Lines, one of the largest private LTL carriers, told [FreightWaves Today October 5](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhVjpL22Rwk0KunAQOLapuhF9uomKQaIXCcpMaEj1iojfPt2zWUQnMgs2YYqeEOeTVqImDcXg5UQxC8BMmG43hVkojB0xf7ZuFL-2BgFNkR6QSg-3D-3DOjlk_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FteXIaUaLQup0zOD-2Bs-2Fl-2FuiHHjIFyCTYM4MnIoGtDIl7nQXp11K2mMto6VWaupD6uOYj3CVcsklTmfE4OJ1rBup56erfYrtWfhsyi5xYdWzKytH7cji38wFBqL4h4PTB3iw-3D-3D): "last week, our tonnage was up 15% year over year." He noted that part of that is calendar noise, because month-end fell on Wednesday this year and customers rush to hit quarterly targets. He was clear about the source: "It's still more supply driven. So I'm not saying that like everyone's booming from a customer standpoint."

His most telling figure:

"Our next day business in Q3 was up 13% year over year, whereas the rest of our business was up two and a half percent."

Freight is getting more regional. "As fuel is higher, the shorter the length of haul... it's going to be cheaper," and as truckload capacity shrinks, LTL carriers pick up regional work truckload used to do. One more note: "capacity has kind of met demand." Estes is "not having any hard times hiring drivers." That's a softer labor picture than the "28% of drivers removed" figure an analytics partner cited on the [TRUCK YEAH! podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3oxwO7S5mOaNTPLci7aL021HfKq77vqGe12tgDR31NAPzQkrEfgfD6Uk2fTQK6B9bBtqZdo27Crksy3FvjgAI041B9VctxOo3NE0B6cRO8A-3D-3Dr2EL_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtdAM2MNTLGgFILka-2B7G2imJ1uYtMlhX8O9C4xohd-2FkIJtZgim8sl3XLLatqCq2RSjs525y9ylQiUQd-2F5U91fM-2F95MdkQnwbooQ4qUMSuDZ0sPYouw1PSqCJmoMzopKa-2BLQ-3D-3D). Even the host said of that number, "That seems high."

### 8. Rail: steady growth, and intermodal keeps winning

Bill Stevens, editor of *Trains* magazine, on [FreightWaves Today September 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg41N-2FNP4eLK1rl0zutbi-2FS5y2Xbo2MLuHbnyjSl0GLmTylH4XTPAi6OrxkHosOrGRvn0mw0uD4iTIpjTKEf5TpaM-2BRgeoB9fSTBkMe6yXdOw-3D-3DiAUo_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtVKJbXt0AQHHxofpqpZeaM73-2BJUbI9F8bCMiq4nkfbojysDVBRaUSG1yJ38H6bPpZapmbBmHpyFmUL2chscuCFSgyPdTRZy7OAJHBmETGsS3a-2FjqSQBIDMxP1mDaAchqrQ-3D-3D), with the Association of American Railroads' week 38 numbers:

| Week 38 vs. a year ago | Change |
|---|---|
| North American total | +3.5% |
| North American intermodal | +5.3% |
| North American carloads | +1.5% |
| U.S. intermodal | +6.3% |
| U.S. carloads | +3.0% |
| U.S. carloads ex coal & grain | +4.9% |
| Chemicals & petroleum | +7.7% |
| Metallic ores & metals | +9.5% |
| Motor vehicles & parts | −1.8% |

Carloads excluding coal and grain are the cleanest rail read on the industrial economy, and that measure is up almost 5%. Autos are the weak spot, but Stevens attributed that to a tough comparison: last year buyers rushed to buy EVs before the federal tax credit expired on September 30.

FreightWaves' SONAR data showed the *seven-day average of loaded domestic intermodal containers at 21,697, a 2026 high*, roughly 8% above last year. The reason is price. FreightWaves' intermodal savings index (how much cheaper rail is than trucking on the same lane) has eased from 33% in mid-August to *30.9%*. Harrisburg–Atlanta still shows *43%* savings and California–Ohio more than *42%*.

There's one caution, and it came from Strickland: "this type of growth, really hard to manage on any business level, especially with a fixed infrastructure... it does not look sustainable to me." On [The Freight Coach Podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhayt-2BhfQncSZJgixRt6VRHxrMUFW9OV0j1ZfsRcNx-2BuJJOvHhk72of26OqNiDDiOxL6klXdXiuu4J-2FbrYdRKI-2F847TfrmBCzOxKQnlHDc1ug-3D-3DALAq_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtYUhK3j9Ac1LXF-2B2XLsLJ1VsMtcKrqx88xOxKNbf9PY25NYOHRkpIW4vqEucudKhWhKBu6PB8yDrSBBxc8TdPeKysph3rqahkTCn5LUBGlDVRe9aqnQVsTXSl8adr9Dyjg-3D-3D), guests described tight drayage (the short truck haul between rail yard and warehouse) out of California during peak season. Railroads are giving better rates and equipment to shippers who commit year-round. Occasional users are paying more.

## The Debate: Real Turn or False Start?

This week supported both sides more evenly than recent weeks did.

*Real turn (supply stays tight):*

* New carriers aren't forming even with rates up ~40%, because brokers can't safely use them (Graft).
* Diesel is now the bigger brake on new capacity, and it's expected to stay high into 2027 (Miller, Munster).
* Truck orders are below replacement level (Lynch), and the people who own trucks are being told not to buy more until margins reach a 92 operating ratio (Larkin).
* Dry van rejections are stuck around 11% even as tender volumes drop.
* Big brokers are merging to cut costs, not to win market share by underpricing.

*False start (demand rolls over):*

* Tender volumes fell sharply into October and are heading back to summer lows that were below April.
* The 30-year mortgage rate is 7.03% (Freddie Mac via FTR), the highest since January 2025, which weighs on housing, furniture and building-materials freight.
* Freight volumes are up only about 1.5% (Miller). Estes's growth is "supply driven."
* WHAT THE TRUCK?!?'s Dooner on the first year-over-year gain in trucking jobs since April 2023, +800 in September: "0.05% isn't a positive. It's well within the margin of error."
* Some freight is moving to rail. That's bad for long-haul truckload even if it's good for the economy.

*My read:* both camps describe the same market. Prices are firm because supply keeps shrinking. Volumes are soft because demand is ordinary. As Dooner put it: "There isn't more volume, but rates are up. That means capacity is still leaving." That holds until either demand picks up, which tightens the market, or diesel falls enough for new trucks to come back, which loosens it. Neither happened this week.

## The Names in Play

*C.H. Robinson (CHRW), acquirer.* Per FreightWaves the stock fell on the news, and Fuller argued management is "playing for the long term." The bull case is Klaskow's: $300 million in savings that "could be conservative," cheaper insurance, and an investment-grade balance sheet. The bear case is integration. RXO's own Coyote deal ran into customer overlap. Watch for customer losses during the merger and any regulatory delay past January.

*RXO, target.* The stock jumped toward the offer price. With about $17.25 cash per share plus stock, its value now moves mostly with C.H. Robinson shares and the odds the deal closes. Kingston's "10 consecutive quarters of a net loss" explains why the board took it.

*Covenant Logistics (CVLG).* Parker sounded upbeat on the fourth quarter: a mostly contract book, contract rates now above spot, and rapid driver pay increases. The risk is his own: costs up 40–50% since 2019, excluding fuel.

*Landstar (LSTR).* Per FreightWaves, no move on the news. Fuller argued Landstar's owner-operator model makes it "its own thing," not a simple broker comparison.

*FedEx (FDX).* On the [Schwab Network](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOh7oZt21O-2FlfJ0AKbpZkYZhwfSByl-2FTW-2FaY-2F45K5GIaiZzUrOhO4GOcXXRiTHPwLGqQoYiMKcshoBh2CrD9uvzFqtifeGsuoqOnlwcDp4MV4Q-3D-3D5iNr_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2Fta8-2BWSQUr4sR1hSkbJWOkB2VsPRrTSf4EWpRiZZztKqhCaj8geQQ7KJmOpdq2DsEyhn0YwGKBIaHPDKSYvZY9MRzc46V75LKXMOlyjZbDS3r3KumA0a8YasUgj8MClQnsw-3D-3D) podcast, FedEx was down 12% in September after a 23% gain earlier in the year, mostly on fuel, with October–November expected slow before the holidays. Per [Marketplace](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgUAM5JujckOdeU9fDdF1v0oP4ozD3aEf1ZqQCuDFhJy6cpHScnTj8YOrSQJ76AsVYg1cPErJ67tdwgpBNS9DmepFwCLdp1gIYJzuZYz-2Bw9nA-3D-3DhpBx_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtbBAhMwN-2FFWHV-2Fx8ULhs4RcBakz9cGryn7yBfs2BlaHdZVfwpnwuj-2FsN6CDZeJvt6CGxtzpORU-2FKyBNJVc2Snw6heIne07FPduq1Zupc8C409EMNTNCccZKbSbosMCg4Dw-3D-3D), it has ordered *2,000 all-electric trucks* for delivery by end of next year.

## Read-Throughs

*Brokers and spot-exposed truckload carriers.* The C.H. Robinson–RXO deal confirms that brokerage is now a game of scale. Insurance, compliance and technology costs are mostly fixed, so they favor large companies. Graft's 15% volume growth for brokers above $100 million shows the share shift was already happening before Monday. Spot-heavy small carriers are in the worst position. They still face the full fuel-surcharge lag, and if Dooner's concern is right, the largest broker now has even more say over which carriers get loads.

*Class 8 truck makers and dealers (PCAR, CMI, ALSN, RUSHA).* The first order data in months, secondhand from Zipline's Andrew Lynch on the [TRUCK YEAH! podcast](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOi3oxwO7S5mOaNTPLci7aL021HfKq77vqGe12tgDR31NAPzQkrEfgfD6Uk2fTQK6B9bBtqZdo27Crksy3FvjgAI041B9VctxOo3NE0B6cRO8A-3D-3Dw-YH_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtS2zSQVsmqz0Nq-2BBPgTU3xgddbX6Pbf5IAaCEF6VhEGxMwtXzivATudy2Q2oF3CkYOGIo2-2FngfRq916GqdLoblQBYbGuTPsrSHC67N4-2FIStTYEBXtkLHf8UD9N4ShI0Dwg-3D-3D): "Class 8 orders in August were like below 10,000 trucks... you're not even getting close to the replacement rate." Carriers are "licking their wounds... trying to get their balance sheets back into a healthy place before they go invest." Parker also mentioned new-engine emissions costs that the OEMs may pass through instead of absorbing. For truck makers, orders recover only once margins do, and Larkin's 92 operating ratio test says that's not yet. One thing to watch: Marketplace reports electric box-truck maker Harbinger's customers moving from orders of 100 to quotes for 500–1,000 since diesel rose. In the [Tesla Semi test drive segment](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg41N-2FNP4eLK1rl0zutbi-2FS5y2Xbo2MLuHbnyjSl0GLmTylH4XTPAi6OrxkHosOrGRvn0mw0uD4iTIpjTKEf5TpaM-2BRgeoB9fSTBkMe6yXdOw-3D-3DW19X_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtdXPWwz3lT5gx3oKUKDXNjGoVMrDjvS2CmYtTXWBHIQkL-2BCQZuUr0h5hOtmOgxKjlUUxcwVFip4naNYTrRp57TQviJWFRA4itEPYWgmAQUc4UqfpcQi8X-2Fe-2Fqqo5KdZR-2Fw-3D-3D), FreightWaves' Adam Wingfield, a former Schneider driver and a long-time skeptic, called the truck "a dream to drive" and said the plant can build "1,000 trucks a week." His remaining concern is the roughly 500-mile range.

*Railcar lessors and builders, and the grain shippers.* Rail pricing power is showing up in agriculture. On [AgriTalk](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOgvCY2-2BAeFikEHAp2VTjuAL6MaQ9-2BL1ESA-2F-2F5FixFCkAyqCi0NZXO08GUBpHlYiNHrksQyP2M08jX45opgY3BFm4F-2ByknmLKGny6bErsosIPQ-3D-3DjqO7_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtUhNlCwdID41Q0woPn45kBT8ISXkW6sTXlld-2F5MyL9-2FxNg-2BMmsBg9-2FBI9X6Iyxd1-2FPADZPLtrhA8vMKkf4CMVyRN-2F9L-2F-2FIoWrdfeDSW4DyoboTGbicnhtIDuAZlSWtYpVw-3D-3D) (October 1), a Terrain grain analyst listed the costs:

* New-crop rates: "UP and BNSF on the corn side increased anywhere from $200 to $225" per car; BNSF soybeans to the Pacific Northwest +$150; Mexico held flat.
* Rail fuel surcharge "doubled almost year over year," to about 60 cents per surcharge mile.
* Secondary shuttle freight (the resale market for rail-car slots) is trading about $700 over tariff for October, with "nothing on November forward," which suggests premiums drop back after harvest.
* Corn exports are down about 30% from last year, and sales to Mexico are off about 25%.
* Panama Canal limited to 32 vessels a day, against 36–40 normally. The Mississippi is in its "5th year of low water." Barge rates are up 22% from last year while barge shipments fall.

One rail positive: crushers in western Iowa are railing in soybeans from the Southeast because local harvest is so late. [AgDay](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOhls9BmguQv0uxG8MllLY7vBk6bl2nXL-2FlDvVvoqfny4Pkz0xs8u6fG2kObOXP-2BxTLNInnCt-2BqPz2PQ0eUbZ55Dsl9gfzST14HD-2B6udSyaRBg-3D-3DNqGZ_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtYEMw3ZcLElXveoRmEm8eutYu3N4gODNLhyN3aROAlm8BJdyB5C7TAPzEl8mqIShwdZJEJjenXh1USNlIf-2FDN8SSE-2F6MHSFC-2FsmD08fz1ltieERFlAU6HYQ1L2TN7D1KIw-3D-3D) had Iowa soybeans only *3% harvested versus a 17% average*. On China, [Grain Markets and Other Stuff](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOghI5fgaitIx5R7w55aTqGFJNjnkW7E8UwKD98dVCqGheJG7wvEYx2Yb1h7MrUOy9CL0bs85Nkiri74DxOmNXC-2Fnv4etCh3I1jU2k9HYM2tkA-3D-3Dy97C_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtaSPumtxkvOr1n5xQ0R5nzHclRMTRDbsZbhr2hqEu6DwdAVxclL2SZ-2FE4cgqq39-2FL6FvJenmmine4EuZMZmWyXYwLHOibCa9cWwK5UaRAyjVy55D4LdaO4sEOSKMCQmf-2Fw-3D-3D) counted about *10.8 million tons bought of the 25 million-ton* soybean commitment, with weekly soy export sales up 77%. Those are state-owned purchases, while the extra 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans remains. When the harvest finally arrives it will be compressed into a shorter window, which should mean a late, heavy surge in grain rail and barge traffic.

*Chemicals.* Chemicals and petroleum carloads were up 7.7% in week 38, the second-largest carload category, which is a solid industrial signal for the railroads.

## Fraud and Theft

* *First national cargo-theft sweep.* Cook County Sheriff's Police led a 24-hour operation on September 23–24 with the FBI, Homeland Security, and police from Norfolk Southern, Union Pacific, BNSF and CSX ([FreightWaves Today, Sept 30](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg41N-2FNP4eLK1rl0zutbi-2FS5y2Xbo2MLuHbnyjSl0GLmTylH4XTPAi6OrxkHosOrGRvn0mw0uD4iTIpjTKEf5TpaM-2BRgeoB9fSTBkMe6yXdOw-3D-3DKhMG_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtdrENlZ6eqCTODLYlHMp9kqDE5HnzgSkQ0LCaKz6umOwKrr-2BlDcqddZqG1oH8ve-2FnTBN7IraA00BgV-2BYQbiV0JvdoV-2FQahZ-2FLMfuL7nHjfqhai7l8BXSRqEpAnqeeMcsQg-3D-3D)). They recovered about *$635,000* in cargo, including *30 stolen transformers worth about $600,000*, which had been moved through several cross-docks on a fake bill of lading.
* *Roadside enforcement.* From mid-September to October 1, at least *124 drivers and 226 vehicles* were placed out of service across the U.S. and Canada. Dooner pointed out that English-proficiency violations were "only 2% of the inspections" ([WHAT THE TRUCK?!?](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOjy6yo44DomXBWTF-2FKa3179zYUui2mIXVz5K5VxcZYbLQHTixOOtEeqbj-2F2PADFOKnIVIEMGFdUp9IaYvU-2Fbb0D7kYlqaaZbXvqT-2FXdgPWIig-3D-3DRh0e_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2FtRCi4MF-2FL0PvS2Dkz1QXSgVF1XRaHnzq6HXnMe7blgi48yFFefO0VXKy-2FD-2BmWP-2FIaopENHtRBTLhPk5Qrp85VmLz6a9UY-2BEt35PCbwOnNyT35H01vAOZT9AmGG5vLEuHug-3D-3D)).
* *The RICO suit against TQL and C.H. Robinson.* On [Freight Expectations](http://url7324.matterfact.com/ls/click?upn=u001.idHmPrr2Geh7KYLAsTy7NkrIVb-2FgA4pmf2rMXQwGcOg7zaGidn7ZNOq25uY0s5t6JLigEOFjAysYCqlAJMCjNqD1N-2B-2FU7mV1mVbKT-2FZhMED3aOaFufszCq6fMeXtTLALHHsbLLD-2BwkJSdrQAweWrIQ-3D-3DYSop_7mLGwmUci-2BLaXswv9WX1yTgqn3Wad-2FotHhzHgSNAZbUcE9y3o3QmCRSWm4SVKdFWjH-2F7xy5pmRWGWqiB3wO-2Ftd7wtQrkRRDlvvesREAkKQ19loZVC9m40XrBxn8YVRDnEDSbxfve9WVL3Qwfou2PKW2ABDuGmD5pldYygzf7MsEno909YuXx1w1EHg6Djg-2BCFctD1JOPYzy3d9MBkTe-2B7A-3D-3D), attorney Matt Leffler expects the six carriers' racketeering case to be thrown out early, through a "12(b)(6) motion to dismiss" (a request asking the court to rule that, even if every allegation is true, there's no legal claim). His reasoning is that competitors who lost business probably lack standing. The likelier injured parties, if any, are shippers. Leffler: "Montgomery doesn't say the broker's always liable. Montgomery says the broker has to be reasonable." He added, "perhaps... the whole point of this litigation was never to get a judgment on RICO." It now also hangs over C.H. Robinson's biggest deal.

## What Changed vs. Last Week

| | Last week (Sept 29 issue) | This week |
|---|---|---|
| Diesel (government weekly avg) | $6.599, third straight record | $6.382, −14.7¢, first drop in 4 weeks; AAA $6.32 Oct 5 |
| Export ban | Trump "very seriously" considering | Off the table; G7 releasing 100M barrels, "no export bans" |
| Diesel crack spread | ~$100/bbl | $90–110/bbl depending on source; Munster sees October diesel higher than September |
| Tender rejections | ~14% | 13.74% (Sept 29); dry van ~11% |
| Tender volumes | "not above April" | Sharp drop into October |
| Spot rates (FTR) | Week 37: +41% YoY | Week 38: ~+42% YoY; van +4.5¢ |
| Rail (U.S. intermodal) | Week 37: +6.9% | Week 38: +6.3%; domestic boxes at 2026 high |
| Brokers | RXO's Klooza on carrier yields | C.H. Robinson buying RXO, $5.8B EV |
| Class 8 orders | No data | August reportedly <10,000 |
| 30-yr mortgage | 6.95% | 7.03%, highest since Jan 2025 |

## The Bottom Line

Diesel gave a little back, demand eased with the season, and the industry's largest broker bought its third-largest. None of that changes what's driving this market: supply is shrinking faster than demand is falling. As long as brokers can't safely use new carriers, diesel stays above $6, and truck orders stay below replacement, rates should hold even with ordinary demand. Next week's list: Munster's call for higher October diesel, the September FTR and ACT truck order releases, and J.B. Hunt's mid-October results, the first real look at how carriers handled the diesel spike.

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