# Global Macro Desk — Matterfact Newsletter

> The macro regime end to end: the Fed and the front end, the long end and fiscal supply, inflation and jobs, credit and liquidity plumbing, equity risk and positioning, and the world ex-US.

**55 issues** · What we watch: Fed funds & SOFR futures, SR3, 2Y UST, FedWatch, dot plot, 10Y/30Y UST, TLT, MOVE, QRA/auctions, Bunds/JGBs/gilts, OAT-Bund & BTP spreads, CDS.

---

- [The Fed Signals One More Hike While the Market Prices Three - US Macro Recap - Week of September 22, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-22-us-macro-fed-one-more-market-three.md) — 2026-09-22: US Macro Recap for the week of September 22, 2026. Podcast synthesis on the widening gap between a Fed dot plot showing one more hike and a bond market pricing roughly three, JPMorgan's David Kelly on the record PCE-CPI gap as the dove case, diesel as the most important price in macro, a record 6.3% private-credit default rate, the run-it-hot growth rebuttal, positioning across semis, the dollar and duration, and the K-shaped consumer.
- [Warsh Hikes and the Long End Finally Blinks - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of September 22, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-22-long-end-warsh-hikes-long-end-blinks.md) — 2026-09-22: The Long End & Fiscal Supply for the week of September 22, 2026. Podcast synthesis on Kevin Warsh's hawkish quarter-point hike and the twist flattening that pulled the 10-year back below 5%, J.P. Morgan lifting its year-end 10-year forecast to 5.05% anyway, the near-consensus verdict that Treasury buybacks are ineffective, the Bank of England halting gilt sales, missing 30-year buyers, and read-throughs to mortgages, oil and AI debt issuance.
- [Warsh Hikes 25bp and Signals More Rate Hikes Are Coming - The Fed & the Front End - Week of September 21, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-21-warsh-hikes-signals-more-to-come.md) — 2026-09-21: The Fed & the Front End for the week of September 21, 2026. Podcast synthesis on the Fed's unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, Kevin Warsh's message that policy still isn't restrictive, the gap between the Fed's dots and a market pricing three to four hikes, the 10-year touching 5.01%, and the debate over whether the hike is credible inflation fighting or a policy mistake.
- [The Fed Hiked and Everyone Started Arguing - US Macro Recap - Week of September 18, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-18-us-macro-fed-hiked-everyone-arguing.md) — 2026-09-18: US Macro Recap for the week of September 18, 2026. Podcast synthesis on the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years, a unanimous quarter-point move to 3.75%–4% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, hawkish projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting more and a 2029 date for 2% inflation, the loud fight over whether hiking into an oil shock is a credibility win or a policy mistake, easing oil as the Saudi pipeline reopens, the 10-year Treasury pulled back below 5%, positioning into bonds, volatility, FX and real assets, and a two-track economy propped up by AI CapEx over a cracking K-shaped consumer.
- [The Fed Got Cornered Into a Rate Hike - US Macro Recap - Week of September 15, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-15-us-macro-fed-cornered-into-rate-hike.md) — 2026-09-15: US Macro Recap for the week of September 15, 2026. Podcast synthesis on a hot August core CPI and a 0.51% supercore print pushing September hike odds to roughly 90%, the 10-year Treasury yield touching 5% for the first time since October 2023, oil at $104 and record diesel that a rate hike cannot reach, a split between hawks like BMO, JPMorgan and Societe Generale and doves including the White House's Kevin Hassett, the yen topping call, gold buy calls below $4,300, and a K-shaped consumer running on fumes.
- [Bessent Triples the Treasury Buyback and the 10-Year Yield Still Hits 5% - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of September 15, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-15-long-end-bessent-triples-buyback-yields-hit-five.md) — 2026-09-15: The Long End & Fiscal Supply for the week of September 15, 2026. Podcast synthesis on Scott Bessent tripling the Treasury's long-bond buyback to $6 billion while the 10-year yield still touched 5%, a record-strong 30-year auction that undercut the buyer-strike story, oil above $100 as a co-driver of yields, Mike Green's case that the buyback is rational debt management, and a new theory that stablecoins are funding the front end.
- [A Fed Rate Hike Is Now the Base Case - The Fed & the Front End - Week of September 14, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-14-fed-rate-hike-base-case-front-end.md) — 2026-09-14: The Fed & the Front End for the week of September 14, 2026. Podcast synthesis on why a September Fed rate hike has become the base case after a hot inflation print, whether one hike or two are coming this year, and a bond-market revolt pushing the 10-year toward 5% that has traders questioning whether policymakers can still control long-term rates.
- [An Oil Shock Just Landed on the Fed's Desk - US Macro Recap - Week of September 11, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-11-oil-shock-lands-on-fed-desk.md) — 2026-09-11: US Macro Recap for the week of September 11, 2026. Podcast synthesis on oil back at $100 and diesel above $6 landing on the Fed's desk hours before the August CPI print, why a September hike now hinges on a single decimal point of core inflation, a former Fed president and Apollo's Torsten Slok leaning hawkish while the White House's top economist sees no justification to hike, the yen carry unwind through 155, and long Treasury yields pushing toward 5%.
- [Government Bond Yields Break Higher Across the US, Japan, Germany and the UK - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of September 8, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-08-global-long-end-yields-break.md) — 2026-09-08: The Long End & Fiscal Supply for the week of September 8, 2026. Podcast synthesis on the synchronized global breakout in long-dated government yields, the verdict that Scott Bessent's Treasury buyback failed, the theory that the buyback is a stealth rate hike, Japan's 10-year at 3 percent for the first time since 1996, and the bond bulls who came back with real arguments.
- [A Blowout Jobs Number the Bond Market Ignored - US Macro Recap - Week of September 8, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-08-blowout-jobs-number-bond-market-ignored.md) — 2026-09-08: US Macro Recap for the week of September 8, 2026. Podcast synthesis on the 162,000 August payroll print that almost every economist called a mirage, why Treasuries barely moved, PIMCO's argument that today's inflation is a profit-margin story rather than a wage story, long yields at 2007 highs, and the credit cracks widening under a market that still looks calm.
- [Warsh Turns Hawk and a September Rate Hike Is Back in Play - The Fed & the Front End - Week of September 7, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-07-warsh-turns-hawk-september-in-play.md) — 2026-09-07: The Fed & the Front End for the week of September 7, 2026: Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as chair was emphatically hawkish and flipped September from a hold to a coin-flip hike, a blowout jobs report removed the last easy excuse to stand pat, and the long end broke to multi-decade highs worldwide as the Treasury's buyback rescue sputtered.
- [Warsh Just Put the Rate Hike Back On - US Macro Recap - Week of September 4, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-04-warsh-put-the-rate-hike-back-on.md) — 2026-09-04: US Macro Recap for the week of September 4, 2026: Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech pushed September rate-hike odds from about 35 percent to as high as 67 percent, sitting Fed presidents joined the hawkish camp, and the biggest bond managers took the other side as payrolls fell and the consumer cracked.
- [The Market Buried the Rate Hike but a Fed President Did Not - US Macro Recap - Week of September 1, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-09-01-market-buried-rate-hike-fed-president-didnt.md) — 2026-09-01: US Macro Recap for the week of September 1, 2026. Podcast synthesis on BlackRock's Rick Rieder seeing core PCE drift to 2.5 percent, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem saying he would have hiked in July, the immigration math that cut break-even payroll growth close to zero, and Walmart's weakest same-store sales since early 2020.
- [Warsh Takes Jackson Hole as Inflation Reheats - US Macro Recap - Week of August 28, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-28-warsh-jackson-hole-inflation-reheats.md) — 2026-08-28: US Macro Recap for the week of August 28, 2026. Podcast synthesis on the core inflation print and Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut that will decide the fall, why 3Fourteen marks 0.25 percent as the line that violently reprices September hike odds, Bank of America data arguing the K-shaped consumer is healing, and the AI buildout turning into a bond-market and credit story.
- [The Debasement Trade Goes Vertical as Bitcoin Gold and Silver Surge Into Jackson Hole - US Macro Recap - Week of August 25, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-25-debasement-trade-jackson-hole.md) — 2026-08-25: Rates and macro recap for the week of August 25, 2026. Across the podcast tape the debasement trade went vertical, Bitcoin, gold and silver surged while the dollar sold off, bond desks called the Treasury buyback too small to work, and a quiet change to how Washington measures inflation landed days before Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut.
- [Bessent Doubles Long Bond Buybacks and the Market Calls His Bluff - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of August 25, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-25-bessent-long-bond-buybacks-bluff.md) — 2026-08-25: Rates and macro newsletter for the week of August 18 to 25, 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made a surprise off-cycle move to double long-bond buybacks as the 30-year hit a 19-year high, and across the podcast tape desks read it as signaling discomfort with the level of yields rather than fixing a liquidity problem, a move the market faded within a day.
- [The Long End Breaks Out to a 2007 High as Bessent Blinks - The Fed & the Front End - Week of August 24, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-24-long-end-breaks-out-bessent-blinks.md) — 2026-08-24: Rates and macro newsletter for the week of August 24, 2026. The 30-year Treasury broke above 5.3 percent to its highest since 2007 and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled bond buybacks to force long yields down, an Operation Twist in all but name, as the tape debated hike versus hold versus cut ahead of Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech.
- [The Treasury Blinked to Stop the Bond Selloff - US Macro Recap - Week of August 21, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-21-treasury-blinked-bond-selloff.md) — 2026-08-21: How operators and commentators read the Treasury's decision to double its long-bond buybacks, the labor market's strange dovish signal, and the flipped consumer debate, for the week of August 21, 2026.
- [Rate Hike Odds Crashed and Long Bonds Sold Off Anyway - US Macro Recap - Week of August 18, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-18-us-macro-hike-odds-crashed-bonds-sold-off.md) — 2026-08-18: US Macro Recap for the week of August 18, 2026. July retail sales fell 0.6% and September hike odds collapsed toward 27%, yet the 30-year Treasury yield closed near 5.27%, its highest weekly close since 2007, and the US-Japan yen intervention had already given back half its move.
- [Treasury Auctions Cleared at Generational Highs While the Yen Rescue Leaks - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of August 18, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-18-long-end-auctions-held-yen-rescue-leaking.md) — 2026-08-18: Rates and macro newsletter for the week of August 18, 2026. A soft inflation print let the Treasury sell 10-year and 30-year bonds at the highest yields since 2007 and 2001 to real buyers, while the U.S.-Japan yen rescue gave back half its gains and the bears put a number on fair value near 6 percent.
- [Soft Data Breaks the September Hike Case as the Front End Rallies - The Fed & the Front End - Week of August 17, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-17-fed-front-end-soft-data-breaks-hike-case.md) — 2026-08-17: For the week of August 10 to 17, 2026, a tame July inflation report and a 0.6% drop in retail sales collapsed September rate-hike odds from about 70% to the high-20s, rallying the two-year Treasury to 4.11% while the long end stayed stubbornly high and Fed hawks filled Kevin Warsh's silence.
- [Inflation Cooled, Stocks Soared, and Washington Bought Yen - US Macro Recap - Week of August 14, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-14-us-macro-inflation-cooled-yen.md) — 2026-08-14: US Macro Recap for the week of August 14, 2026. July inflation landed soft and stocks melted up to records, but the hawks reaffirmed a three-hike call on core PCE still near 3.3%, and a rare coordinated US-Japan yen intervention arguably took a September Fed hike further off the table.
- [Payrolls Went Negative and the Rate Hike Talk Faded - US Macro Recap - Week of August 11, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-11-us-macro-payrolls-went-negative.md) — 2026-08-11: A US Macro Recap for the week of August 11, 2026: a surprise negative July payrolls print collapsed the odds of a September rate hike, the break-even jobs reframe took center stage, and everything now hinges on tomorrow's CPI as money rotated into gold, silver, and copper.
- [Washington Bought Yen to Defend Its Bond Market - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of August 11, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-11-long-end-washington-bought-yen.md) — 2026-08-11: Rates and macro newsletter for the week of August 11, 2026. The U.S. bought yen for the first time since 1998 and engineered the operation specifically to keep Japan from selling Treasuries, as the podcast tape split over whether the long-end sell-off is a debt crisis or plain old supply.
- [Jobs Miss Flips the Front End as Warsh Tries a Reset - The Fed & the Front End - Week of August 10, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-10-fed-front-end-jobs-miss-warsh-reset.md) — 2026-08-10: For the week of August 3 to 10, 2026, the July jobs report showed the US economy losing 23,000 jobs against forecasts of adding 83,000, with the two prior months revised down a combined 103,000, cracking the hawks' case and pushing September hike odds back to a coin flip as the new Fed chair walked back his messaging.
- [Inflation Cools as Jobs Day Becomes the Tiebreaker - US Macro Recap - August 7, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-07-inflation-cools-jobs-tiebreaker.md) — 2026-08-07: A synthesis of what macro, rates, and markets podcasts said around the August 7, 2026 jobs report, as July inflation cooled sharply (headline prices briefly fell), a chorus argued the hot core PCE reading is a measurement illusion, and a split labor picture set up a coin-flip payrolls print as the tiebreaker for the September Fed decision.
- [Oil Crashes and Warsh's Long End Bond Gamble Gets a Rethink - US Macro Recap - Week of August 4, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-04-us-macro-oil-crash-warsh-rethink.md) — 2026-08-04: US macro recap for the week of August 4, 2026. Oil crashed as the Iran threat cooled, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's long-end bond selloff got reframed as a deliberate tightening gamble, and soft 1.5% growth leaning on AI capex set up Friday's jobs report as the swing factor.
- [Warsh Holds Rates and the Bond Market Tightens for Him - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of August 4, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-04-long-end-warsh-hold-bond-tightening.md) — 2026-08-04: A synthesis of what macro and rates podcasts said for the week ending August 4, 2026, covering Kevin Warsh's decision to hold the Fed funds rate, the bear steepening that drove the 30-year Treasury to about 5.22 percent, the argument that letting the yield curve do the tightening is deliberate policy, and Japan's yen intervention and repatriation of capital away from U.S. debt.
- [Warsh Holds, Three Officials Revolt, and the Bond Market Does the Tightening - The Fed & the Front End - Week of August 3, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-08-03-fed-front-end-warsh-holds-bond-market-bluff.md) — 2026-08-03: A synthesis of what macro podcasts said about the Federal Reserve for the week ending August 3, 2026, covering the 9-3 hold at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, the largest dissent against an incoming chair since 1970, Kevin Warsh's play-the-ball-not-the-referee doctrine, and the bear steepener that took the 30-year Treasury to a 19-year high.
- [Warsh Holds and the Bond Market Revolts - US Macro Recap - Week of July 31, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-31-warsh-holds-bond-market-revolts.md) — 2026-07-31: A synthesis of what investor and operator podcasts said about the Fed's 9-3 hold, a 30-year Treasury yield at a 19-year high, a soft PCE print, and a full-blown chip crash for the week of July 31, 2026.
- [Japan and the Yen Now Drive the Long End More Than Washington Deficits - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of July 28, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-28-japan-long-end-before-washington.md) — 2026-07-28: Rates and fiscal-supply newsletter for the week of July 21 to 28, 2026. The 30-year Treasury has paid 5% or more for 27 straight days, but the podcast tape spent the week on Tokyo, where the yen hit a 40-year low and the 30-year JGB yields a record 3.98%.
- [Oil Reheats and Jobs Run Hot as Wednesday's Fed Meeting Turns Live - The Fed & the Front End - Week of July 27, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-27-fed-front-end-oil-reheats.md) — 2026-07-27: Rates and macro newsletter for the week of July 27, 2026. An oil spike and the lowest jobless claims since 1969 flipped Wednesday's Fed decision from a formality into a live hike debate, with the podcast tape split on whether Warsh tightens now or the data eventually forces cuts.
- [Alphabet and Tesla's AI Capex Bill Comes Due as Oil Hits $100 - US Macro Recap - Week of July 24, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-24-us-macro-recap-ai-capex-bill-oil-hits-100.md) — 2026-07-24: Global macro newsletter for the week of July 24, 2026. Alphabet and Tesla both raised AI capital spending and posted negative free cash flow for the first time in years, oil spiked back toward $100 a barrel on renewed Iran and Red Sea escalation, and Wall Street forecasters split sharply on whether next week's Fed meeting brings a hike, a hold, or the start of cuts.
- [The Rate Cut Era Is Over and Hikes Are Back - Global Macro - Week of July 23, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-23-rate-cut-era-over-hikes-are-back.md) — 2026-07-23: Global macro newsletter for the week of July 23, 2026. The world's central banks stopped counting rate cuts and started counting hikes: the ECB is odds-on to lift again in September, Britain's new prime minister got a bond-market warning shot with gilts at 5%, and a fresh energy spike is the common fuse, even as America posted its softest inflation in years.
- [One Week to the Fed and the Hawks Get Louder - US Macro Recap - Week of July 21, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-21-us-macro-recap-one-week-to-fed-hawks-louder.md) — 2026-07-21: Global macro newsletter for the week of July 21, 2026. With the July 28 FOMC meeting and Friday's PCE print one week out, the podcasts tracked a sharp hawkish turn at the Fed, a labor market shrinking underneath a steady jobless rate, and an AI capex boom that has quietly become a credit story funded by borrowing.
- [The Fed Isn't in the Bailout Business Yet - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of July 21, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-21-long-end-fed-not-bailout-business.md) — 2026-07-21: Rates and fiscal-supply newsletter for the week of July 14 to 21, 2026. New Fed chair Kevin Warsh spent three days testifying, a soft June inflation print was shrugged off by the long end within a session, and the podcasts turned to the harder question underneath the tape: who is left to buy all this debt as Washington leans on Treasury bills and September firms up as the live hike month.
- [Cold June CPI Kills the July Rate Hike Bet as Warsh Stays Coy - The Fed & the Front End - Week of July 20, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-20-cold-june-cpi-kills-july-hike-warsh-stays-coy.md) — 2026-07-20: Rates and macro podcast intelligence for the week of July 20, 2026. A surprisingly cold June CPI report landed the same morning Kevin Warsh opened his first testimony as Fed chair, collapsing July hike odds from roughly 40% to about 12%, while the deeper September fight stayed wide open.
- [Cheap Gas Cooled Inflation but the Fed Isn't Buying It - US Macro Recap - Week of July 17, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-17-us-macro-recap-cheap-gas-hawkish-fed.md) — 2026-07-17: Global macro newsletter for the week of July 17, 2026. June inflation fell to a six-year low as cheap gasoline did most of the work and the market slashed its July rate-hike odds, yet new Fed chair Kevin Warsh refused to declare victory as oil climbed back and the labor market showed cracks underneath the headline.
- [Cheaper Gas, a Hawkish Fed, a Cracking Consumer - US Macro Recap - Week of July 14, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-14-us-macro-recap-gas-fed-consumer.md) — 2026-07-14: US Macro Recap for the week of July 14, 2026. Cheaper June gasoline should flatter the first inflation print of the Kevin Warsh era even as the Fed openly debates a hike, while Apollo's Torsten Slok warns that about half of US growth now rests on AI spending and hyperscaler free cash flow is falling toward zero, and a 50% one-month jump in rent delinquencies signals the bottom of the K-shaped economy is cracking.
- [The 30-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5 Percent as Bonds Call the Fed's Bluff - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of July 14, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-14-long-end-fiscal-supply-30-year.md) — 2026-07-14: Rates and fiscal-supply newsletter for the week of July 8 to 14, 2026. The war and oil came back, newly released FOMC minutes showed nine officials now pencil in a hike this year under new chair Kevin Warsh, and the long end broke to fresh cycle highs, with the 30-year crossing 5.07% as the bond market played chicken with the Fed.
- [Hawkish Fed Minutes Meet Dovish Data as Warsh Stays Silent - The Fed & the Front End - Week of July 13, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-13-fed-front-end-hawkish-minutes-dovish-data.md) — 2026-07-13: Rates and macro newsletter for the week of July 13, 2026. The minutes from Kevin Warsh's first meeting showed nine officials now pencil in a hike this year versus zero in March, yet a soft jobs report and cheaper gasoline pushed near-term hike odds sharply lower, leaving a genuinely two-sided debate in which the loudest voices leaned toward hold or cut.
- [Breakevens Crash, the Labor Force Quietly Shrinks - US Macro Recap - Week of July 10, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-10-us-macro-breakevens-labor-force.md) — 2026-07-10: US macro recap for the week of July 10, 2026. The bond market's inflation gauge fell faster than oil as breakevens priced demand destruction, the labor force shrank by 720,000 to a 50-year-low participation rate, and a split Fed still worried about reflation even as core PCE drifted up.
- [GDPNow Cracks, CPI Goes Negative, and AI Becomes the Economy - US Macro Recap - Week of July 7, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-07-macro-gdpnow-cracks-cpi-negative.md) — 2026-07-07: US Macro Recap for the week of July 7, 2026. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast collapsed toward 1.2% before a soft payroll print even landed, forecasters hardened their negative-CPI calls, and roughly $600 billion of AI capex from four companies got framed as essentially all of US growth.
- [Peak Hawk Cracks While the Debt Clock Keeps Ticking - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of July 7, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-07-long-end-fiscal-supply.md) — 2026-07-07: The Long End & Fiscal Supply for the week of July 7, 2026. A soft 57K June payrolls print cracked the peak-hawk trade while the podcast tape sharpened the fiscal-supply bear case into a Treasury-led crisis of confidence, alongside a loud gold and silver debasement bid.
- [June Jobs Miss Shifts the Fed Toward Hold as the Hike Debate Stays Live - The Fed & the Front End - Week of July 6, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-06-fed-front-end-jobs-miss-warsh.md) — 2026-07-06: The Fed and the Front End newsletter for the week of July 6, 2026. With the funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% and inflation near 4%, the tape split between a hawkish camp openly debating hikes and rates desks who see no inflation from labor, before Friday's 57k June jobs miss snapped near-term odds back toward a July hold.
- [Payrolls Soften, Oil Sinks, the K Splits Wider - US Macro Recap - Week of June 29, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-03-payrolls-soften-k-splits-wider.md) — 2026-07-03: June payrolls softened to 57k with deep revisions, yet unemployment fell to 4.2% as the labor force shrank, while oil under $70 dragged breakevens toward target and card delinquencies pushed above 2009 peaks. Our US Macro Recap synthesis for the week of June 29, 2026.
- [The Great Rotation Arrives as PCE Runs Hot - US Macro Recap - June 30, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-30-great-rotation-pce-runs-hot.md) — 2026-06-30: May PCE hit a three-year high and Warsh's dots took cuts off the table, yet the two-year fell while the 493 outran the Mag7 by 18%. Our US Macro Recap synthesis for June 30, 2026.
- [Long End Rallies With Oil as the Supply Driven Steepener Waits - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of June 23-30, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-30-bear-flattener-steepener-later.md) — 2026-06-30: Oil round-tripped the war premium and break-evens crashed, rallying the long end into a bear flattener now while the supply-driven steepener stays a months-not-weeks story. Our synthesis for the week of June 23-30, 2026.
- [Warsh's Hawkish Reset and the Front-End Repricing - The Fed & the Front End - Week of June 22-29, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-29-fed-front-end-warsh-hawkish-reset.md) — 2026-06-29: Kevin Warsh's first FOMC held rates but flipped the front end from cuts to near-certain hikes, and the podcast tape split hard between hawks and doves. Our synthesis for the week of June 22-29, 2026.
- [Benign May Core PCE and Falling Oil Ease Fed Rate Hike Fears - US Macro Recap - Week of June 26, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-26-us-macro-oil-comes-home-hike-panic-fades.md) — 2026-06-26: US macro recap for the week of June 26, 2026. May core PCE printed a benign 0.3%, oil completed its round-trip below $70, and hike odds eased to ~40% as the Fed panic faded, while a Q1 consumption revision to +0.5% put the K-shaped consumer into the GDP math.
- [Oil Falls and Warsh's Hawkish Fed Debut Flattens the Yield Curve - US Macro Recap - Week of June 23, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-23-us-macro-oil-warsh-curve-flat.md) — 2026-06-23: US macro recap for the week of June 23, 2026. The Strait of Hormuz reopened and crude cracked from the low $80s to the mid-$70s, yet Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut scrapped forward guidance and pushed the 2-year to multi-year highs, leaving the front end pricing hikes while collapsing breakevens and a flattening 2s10s say the economy can't take them.
- [Weak Demand and Heavy Supply Pressure Long-Dated US Treasuries - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of June 23, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-23-long-end-whos-left-to-buy.md) — 2026-06-23: The long end and fiscal supply newsletter for the week of June 23, 2026. The tape's obsession was the marginal buyer of duration: a bear case built on a $1.7T half-year deficit, eroding foreign demand and deliberate duration-shortening dominated, while the only credible long-end bull argument is the scariest one, an eventual yield curve control endgame that is bullish for bond prices and bearish for the dollar.
- [Warsh's First Fed Meeting Holds Rates but Hawkish Tone Lifts Short-Term Treasury Yields - The Fed & the Front End - Week of June 15–19, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-22-fed-warsh-debut-reprices-front-end.md) — 2026-06-22: Rates and macro newsletter for the week of June 15–19, 2026. Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC on June 17, held funds at 3.5%–3.75% and used tone rather than action to bear-flatten the curve, with the debate now over whether this was a real reaction-function shift or tough talk engineered to tighten without ever hiking.
- [Inflation Reaccelerates and AI Capex Surges as the Lower-Income Consumer Weakens - US Macro Recap - Week of June 19, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-19-hot-prints-hotter-capex-cracking-bottom.md) — 2026-06-19: US macro newsletter for the week of June 19, 2026. The podcast tape converged on three themes: re-accelerating inflation, an AI capex build-out now sized like a national economy, and a K-shaped consumer where the bottom half is running out of room, with the Iran conflict the swing variable nobody can price.
- [Markets Shift From Pricing Fed Cuts to Pricing a Rate Hike as Warsh Takes Office - The Fed & the Front End - Week of May 31, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-05-31-fed-front-end.md) — 2026-05-31: Rates and macro newsletter for the week of May 31, 2026. Across the podcast tape, every serious rates voice has moved from debating cuts to debating a hike as Kevin Warsh takes office, with the December fed funds contract now pricing a move up rather than down.

---

Related: [all newsletters](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter.md) · [full corpus](https://www.matterfact.com/llms-full.txt)