# FX & Currencies — Matterfact Podcast Newsletter > The dollar regime and reserves, the G10 majors and the yen carry, the commodity currencies, and EM FX across Asia, LatAm, and EMEA. **23 issues** · What we watch: DXY, UUP, real-yield differentials, CFTC COT, COFER reserve data, cross-currency basis/FX swaps, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, FXE, FXB. --- - [The Dollar Rally Runs Low on Fuel as Early Bulls Start Trimming - The Dollar Brief - July 2, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-02-dollar-brief-rally-fuel-gauge-blinking.md) — 2026-07-02: The Dollar Brief for July 2, 2026. The banks are piling onto the dollar bull case just as the desks that got long first start calling it toppy, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh refuses to talk the currency down from the ECB's Sintra stage, and a 140-company stablecoin consortium reshuffles who profits from the Treasury bid. - [The Dollar Rips as the Fed Keeps Its Independence - The Dollar Brief - July 1, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-01-dollar-brief-fed-independence-rip.md) — 2026-07-01: The Dollar Brief for July 1, 2026. How the people running money read the dollar's push to a one-year high, from a Warsh Fed that swung to a hiking bias and a Supreme Court ruling protecting Fed independence, to the sell-side rate-differential bulls and the plumbing contrarians who disagree on the engine. - [Warsh's Hawkish Debut Sends the Dollar Ripping - The Dollar Brief - June 30, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-30-dollar-brief-warsh-dollar-ripping.md) — 2026-06-30: How macro traders are reading the dollar's breakout after Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed debut and the Supreme Court's ruling on Fed independence, for June 30, 2026, from the time-boxed bull case to the contrarian fade and the structural stablecoin and de-dollarization debates. - [The Funder Trade Just Got Flipped on Its Head - The Funder Trade - Week of June 29, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-29-g10-fx-funder-trade-flipped.md) — 2026-06-29: How G10 FX desks are repositioning after Warsh's hawkish Fed turn broke the dollar out, for the week of June 22-29, 2026, from long-USD carry through non-dollar funders to the franc-as-funder trade and the yen-repatriation tail. - [The Dollar Breaks Out on Warsh's Hawkish Debut - The Dollar Brief - Week of June 29, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-29-dollar-brief-warsh-hawkish-breakout.md) — 2026-06-29: How macro traders are reading the dollar's breakout after Kevin Warsh's hawkish first FOMC meeting, for the week of June 22-29, 2026, from the bull case to the fade and the structural debates on de-dollarization and stablecoin Treasury demand. - [Oil Breaks 70 Dollars and the Aussie Carry Trade Cracks on a Tech Selloff - Commodity FX: AUD, CAD, NOK & NZD - Week of June 27, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-27-commodity-fx-oil-70-aussie-cracks.md) — 2026-06-27: Commodity and petro-currency FX newsletter for the week of June 27, 2026. WTI printed a sub-70 dollar handle for the first time since February while the dollar held a one-year high, and the carry premium that had protected the Aussie finally gave way, not on commodities but on a tech-led risk-off. - [JPMorgan Turns Dollar Bullish but Keeps the EM Carry Trade On - EM FX: Asia, LatAm & EMEA - Week of June 26, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-26-em-carry-survives-hawkish-dollar.md) — 2026-06-26: EM FX newsletter for the week of June 26, 2026. After June's FOMC the loudest FX desks flipped to outright dollar bulls yet kept EM carry as their primary 2H alpha theme, while Eurodollar University's Jeff Snider warns the rising dollar is a global dollar-shortage signal, not a healthy cycle. - [Warsh's Hawkish Hold and Falling Oil Push the Dollar Index Out of a 15-Month Range - The Dollar Brief - Week of June 26, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-26-dollar-brief-warsh-hawkish-hold-breakout.md) — 2026-06-26: A hawkish first meeting from new Fed chair Kevin Warsh and a sharp drop in oil snapped the DXY out of a 15-month range for the week of June 26, 2026, with widening rate differentials, not de-dollarization, doing the work. This issue tracks the breakout, the bull-bear standoff, and the stablecoin-and-Treasury angle that practitioners say is the most underpriced dollar story. - [Hawkish Fed Lifts the Dollar Across G10 as the Yen Nears Japan's Intervention Line - G10 FX: EUR, GBP, CHF & the Yen Carry - Week of June 25, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-25-g10-fx-warsh-dollar-yen-mof.md) — 2026-06-25: A new Fed chair and a hawkish hold hand the dollar a fresh regime, the ECB-vs-BoE split reshapes EUR/GBP, the franc flips to a funder, and USD/JPY presses a silent MoF for the week of June 25, 2026. - [Warsh's Hawkish First Fed Meeting Breaks the Dollar Above a Year of Resistance - The Dollar Brief - Week of June 25, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-25-dollar-brief-warsh-breakout.md) — 2026-06-25: Kevin Warsh's first FOMC tore up forward guidance and snapped the dollar index above a year of resistance, flipping J.P. Morgan's FX desk to outright bullish for the week of June 25, 2026. This issue tracks the breakout, the bull-bear standoff, and the unresolved de-dollarization fight. - [Warsh Hawkish FOMC Debut Lifts the Dollar and Flips the Sell-Side Bullish - The Dollar Brief - Week of June 24, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-24-dollar-brief-warsh-dollar-rips.md) — 2026-06-24: The Dollar Brief for the week of June 24, 2026. Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC sent the dollar ripping and flipped the sell-side from bearish to bullish almost overnight, while the most rigorous reserve-currency read of the week argues the dollar is remarkably stable and the gold story is a price illusion. - [Hawkish Warsh Fed Lifts the Dollar but Top Desks Stay Long the EM Carry Trade - EM FX: Asia, LatAm & EMEA - Week of June 23, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-23-em-carry-warsh-hawkish-fed.md) — 2026-06-23: EM FX newsletter for the week of June 23, 2026. Kevin Warsh's hawkish FOMC debut ripped the dollar higher and forced every carry book to re-underwrite its thesis, yet the biggest desks are sticking with EM carry as a core 2H trade, with EMEA (Hungary, South Africa, Mexico) the highest-conviction block. - [Hawkish Warsh Fed Debut Breaks the Dollar Out of Its Range and Flips JPMorgan Bullish - The Dollar Brief - Week of June 23, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-23-dollar-brief-warsh-hawkish-debut.md) — 2026-06-23: The Dollar Brief for the week of June 23, 2026. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC landed harder than expected, the dot plot flipped from a projected cut to a median hike, JPMorgan abandoned its bearish-dollar call, and the macro tape split over whether this is a real dollar leg higher or the last gasp before fiscal and political weight reasserts itself. - [Hawkish Warsh Fed Lifts the Dollar and Flips G10 Carry Trades Bullish - G10 FX & The Carry Trade - Week of June 22, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-22-warsh-era-begins-dollar-has-yield.md) — 2026-06-22: G10 FX and carry newsletter for the week of June 22, 2026. A hawkish Warsh debut flipped the Street's house view bullish dollar and reset every G10 cross: the cleanest expression is now long USD/JPY toward 164 with the MoF on the sidelines, the yen and franc are the H2 funding legs of choice, and sterling has been demoted to a EUR/GBP cross trade. - [Warsh's Hawkish First Fed Meeting Lifts the Dollar as Banks Flip to Bullish Calls - The Dollar Brief - Week of June 22, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-22-dollar-brief-warsh-hawks-fly.md) — 2026-06-22: Kevin Warsh's first FOMC kept rates on hold but the dot plot turned hawkish, with nine officials now penciling in a hike, and the dollar ripped while the sell side flipped from bearish to bullish for the week of June 22, 2026. This issue tracks the regime hinge, the bull-bear standoff, and whether the hikes ever actually arrive. - [Hawkish Fed and Falling Oil Prices Divide the Commodity Currencies - Commodity FX - Week of June 20, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-20-commodity-fx-warsh-cheap-oil.md) — 2026-06-20: Commodity FX newsletter for the week of June 20, 2026. A hawkish first FOMC under Kevin Warsh and a US-Iran oil crash pulled the commodity-currency bloc apart, with the carry-rich Aussie shrugging off the dollar breakout while the petro-loonie and Norwegian crown wore the oil move. - [Warsh's Hawkish First Fed Meeting Lifts the Dollar - The Dollar Brief - Week of June 19, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-19-warsh-hawkish-dollar-catches-a-bid.md) — 2026-06-19: Dollar and FX newsletter for the week of June 19, 2026. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC landed as shockingly hawkish, a terse statement, no chair dot, nine members penciling a hike, and a front-end repricing toward an October move, and the dollar caught a bid while the debate split between desks calling the bid durable and independents reading a rising dollar as a global funding warning. - [Emerging Market Bonds Now Carry Lower Volatility and Higher Yield Than Developed Markets - EM FX, Asia, LatAm & EMEA - Week of June 19, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-19-em-lower-vol-than-developed-markets.md) — 2026-06-19: Emerging-market FX and rates newsletter for the week of June 19, 2026. The tightest EM bull case in years (lower vol, higher carry than developed markets) ran straight into India's managed rupee depreciation and a structural skeptic on de-dollarization. - [Warsh Holds Rates with a Hawkish Signal at His First FOMC and the Dollar Stays Strong - The Dollar Brief - Week of June 18, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-18-warsh-picks-a-side-dollar-listens.md) — 2026-06-18: Dollar and FX newsletter for the week of June 18, 2026. Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC and held with hawkish dots, and the podcast tape splits between desks calling the dollar cheap-to-rates with an un-priced hiking cycle and independents reading the same price action as capital flight and a Treasury-bill demand engine forming in stablecoins. - [Synchronized G10 Rate Hikes Push the Dollar Near 52-Week Highs - The Dollar Brief - Week of June 18, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-18-everyone-is-hiking-dollar-winning.md) — 2026-06-18: Dollar and FX newsletter for the week of June 18, 2026. Synchronized G10 tightening (an ECB hike, a Bank of Japan move to 1%, and a hawkish-on-hold Warsh Fed) has the dollar pinned near 52-week highs, with the cleanest carry long in sterling and the most crowded pain trade a yen-carry unwind waiting on an equity wobble. - [JPMorgan Cuts Its Euro Forecast as the Bank of England Turns Dovish - G10 FX: EUR, GBP, CHF & the Yen Carry - Week of June 1, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-01-g10-fx-wall-street-bails-euro.md) — 2026-06-01: G10 FX newsletter for the week of June 1, 2026. Across the FX tape the sell-side capitulated on the euro, the Bank of England edged dovish, and the cheapest vol in three years sits right under the yen, while CHF stayed conspicuously silent. - [Weakness Across Canada Europe and the UK Hands the Dollar a Tailwind - The Dollar: Direction, Reserves & Positioning - Week of June 1, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-01-dollar-g10-cracks-first.md) — 2026-06-01: Dollar and FX newsletter for the week of June 1, 2026. The week's dollar tailwind was made overseas: Canada in technical recession, France contracting, the BoE making peace with above-target inflation, and the BoJ as the last hawk standing, with the rate-differential math running through the crosses. - [JPMorgan Turns Bearish on the Euro and Calls for a Stronger Dollar - G10 FX: EUR, GBP, CHF & the Yen Carry - Week of May 24–31, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-05-31-g10-fx-euro-rally.md) — 2026-05-31: G10 FX newsletter for May 24–31, 2026. JPMorgan's FX desk turns high-conviction short EUR/USD while sterling, the Swissie and the yen barely register on tape, leaving one house's dollar-bull call as the loudest voice of the week. --- Related: [all newsletters](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter.md) · [full corpus](https://www.matterfact.com/llms-full.txt)