# Global Macro — Matterfact Podcast Newsletter > The macro regime end to end: the Fed and the front end, the long end and fiscal supply, inflation and jobs, credit and liquidity plumbing, equity risk and positioning, and the world ex-US. **9 issues** · What we watch: Fed funds & SOFR futures, SR3, 2Y UST, FedWatch, dot plot, 10Y/30Y UST, TLT, MOVE, QRA/auctions, Bunds/JGBs/gilts, OAT-Bund & BTP spreads, CDS. --- - [The Yen Breaks 162 as Rate Hikes Stop Moving Currencies - G10 FX - Week of July 2, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-07-02-g10-fx-yen-breaks-162-hikes-stop-working.md) — 2026-07-02: G10 FX for the week of July 2, 2026. USD/JPY blew past 162 to a 40-year low despite a BoJ hike and a record intervention, sterling emerged as the desks' one clean long, and the consensus dollar-carry trade drew the sharpest tape-readers to the other side. - [Warsh's Hawkish Reset and the Front-End Repricing - The Fed & the Front End - Week of June 22-29, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-29-fed-front-end-warsh-hawkish-reset.md) — 2026-06-29: Kevin Warsh's first FOMC held rates but flipped the front end from cuts to near-certain hikes, and the podcast tape split hard between hawks and doves. Our synthesis for the week of June 22-29, 2026. - [Benign May Core PCE and Falling Oil Ease Fed Rate Hike Fears - US Macro Recap - Week of June 26, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-26-us-macro-oil-comes-home-hike-panic-fades.md) — 2026-06-26: US macro recap for the week of June 26, 2026. May core PCE printed a benign 0.3%, oil completed its round-trip below $70, and hike odds eased to ~40% as the Fed panic faded, while a Q1 consumption revision to +0.5% put the K-shaped consumer into the GDP math. - [Oil Falls and Warsh's Hawkish Fed Debut Flattens the Yield Curve - US Macro Recap - Week of June 23, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-23-us-macro-oil-warsh-curve-flat.md) — 2026-06-23: US macro recap for the week of June 23, 2026. The Strait of Hormuz reopened and crude cracked from the low $80s to the mid-$70s, yet Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut scrapped forward guidance and pushed the 2-year to multi-year highs, leaving the front end pricing hikes while collapsing breakevens and a flattening 2s10s say the economy can't take them. - [Weak Demand and Heavy Supply Pressure Long-Dated US Treasuries - The Long End & Fiscal Supply - Week of June 23, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-23-long-end-whos-left-to-buy.md) — 2026-06-23: The long end and fiscal supply newsletter for the week of June 23, 2026. The tape's obsession was the marginal buyer of duration: a bear case built on a $1.7T half-year deficit, eroding foreign demand and deliberate duration-shortening dominated, while the only credible long-end bull argument is the scariest one, an eventual yield curve control endgame that is bullish for bond prices and bearish for the dollar. - [Warsh's First Fed Meeting Holds Rates but Hawkish Tone Lifts Short-Term Treasury Yields - The Fed & the Front End - Week of June 15–19, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-22-fed-warsh-debut-reprices-front-end.md) — 2026-06-22: Rates and macro newsletter for the week of June 15–19, 2026. Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC on June 17, held funds at 3.5%–3.75% and used tone rather than action to bear-flatten the curve, with the debate now over whether this was a real reaction-function shift or tough talk engineered to tighten without ever hiking. - [Inflation Reaccelerates and AI Capex Surges as the Lower-Income Consumer Weakens - US Macro Recap - Week of June 19, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-19-hot-prints-hotter-capex-cracking-bottom.md) — 2026-06-19: US macro newsletter for the week of June 19, 2026. The podcast tape converged on three themes: re-accelerating inflation, an AI capex build-out now sized like a national economy, and a K-shaped consumer where the bottom half is running out of room, with the Iran conflict the swing variable nobody can price. - [JPMorgan Cuts Its Euro Forecast as the Bank of England Turns Dovish - G10 FX: EUR, GBP, CHF & the Yen Carry - Week of June 1, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-06-01-g10-fx-wall-street-bails-euro.md) — 2026-06-01: G10 FX newsletter for the week of June 1, 2026. Across the FX tape the sell-side capitulated on the euro, the Bank of England edged dovish, and the cheapest vol in three years sits right under the yen, while CHF stayed conspicuously silent. - [Markets Shift From Pricing Fed Cuts to Pricing a Rate Hike as Warsh Takes Office - The Fed & the Front End - Week of May 31, 2026](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter/2026-05-31-fed-front-end.md) — 2026-05-31: Rates and macro newsletter for the week of May 31, 2026. Across the podcast tape, every serious rates voice has moved from debating cuts to debating a hike as Kevin Warsh takes office, with the December fed funds contract now pricing a move up rather than down. --- Related: [all newsletters](https://www.matterfact.com/newsletter.md) · [full corpus](https://www.matterfact.com/llms-full.txt)